CRISIS IN EAST ASIA NINE LESSONS
INTRODUCTION
Asprivatecapitalflowstodevelopingcountriessurgedinthe1990s,financialcrisesinemergingmarketeconomieshaveoccurredwithdisturbingandincreasingregularity.ThesuddencessationandthenreversalofcapitalflowstoMexicoin1994causedthefirsttremorsintheglobaleconomy,leadingtothedevaluationofthepesoanddeeprecession,withdirectspilloversintoArgentina(theTequilacrisis).ThemajorfinancialearthquakeinEastAsiasoonfollowed.ThecurrencycrisisinThailandwasrapidlytransmittedtoIndonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andKorea,anditsimpactramifiedthroughouttheglobaleconomy.Sincethentheemergingmarketshaveexperiencedasteadyseriesofafter-shocks:in1998and1999capitalflowreversalsinducedcurrencydevaluationsinRussia(August1998)andBrazil(January1999),andmostrecentlyrecession,devaluation,anddefaultinArgentina(2002),andrecessionsandpaymentsproblemsinUruguayandEcuador(2002).BrazilandTurkey(asofthiswriting)stillhoverperilouslyclosetotheprecipiceofcrisis.Thoughtheregionhassincerecovered,EastAsia’scrisisremainsthemostsevereinitsdepthandregionalbreadth.
Nowsixyearsdistant,theEastAsiacrisishasprovidedatreasuretroveofstudiesthatilluminatevariouscausesofcrises,and,thoughtheydifferinemphasis,anemergingconsensuspointstofourmountingvulnerabilitiesinThailand,Indonesia,KoreaandMalaysia.1First,theglobaleconomyspawnedanunprecedentlylargesurgeinprivatecapitalflowsinthe1990s,especiallyshort-termflows,asderegulatedbanksintherichcountriesscannedtheglobeforhigherreturnopportunities,andEastAsialookedparticularlyattractivewithitslowdebtratios,rapidgrowth,andstableexchangerates(e.g.,seeWorldBank,[2000band2001]).Second,macroeconomicpoliciesinEastAsiatookadvantageofthisboomtofacilitatelargeinflowsofshort-term,unhedged,foreigncurrency-denominatedcapital,fuelingadomesticcreditboomand
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in percent of GDP Low-income East Asia excluding China East Asia excluding China Crisis-affected Crisis-affected China 0 10 20 30 40 50 China 0 10 ...
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