英语科技论文翻译

Are Counterfactual Decisions Relevant for Dynamically

Consistent Updating under Nonexpected Utility?*

不可预期效用下的动态一致性更新与反事实的决定有关吗？

Peter P. Wakker

CentER, Tilburg University, The Netherlands

中心、昆士兰大学,荷兰

December, 1997

1997年十月

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new updating method that preserves dynamic

consistency in nonexpected utility. Given nonseparability of disjoint 解体events, preferences conditional on an observed 观测的；观察的event also depend on counterfactual outcomes, i.e., outcomes

that would have resulted outside of the conditioning 调节；整修；条件作用event; this point has been well-understood in the literature. This paper argues that, as a consequence, also counterfactual decisions are relevant. A new "strategic" method for updating then follows.

摘要 。这篇论文提出了一种保护不可预期效用下的一致性新的更新方法。考虑到解体事件的不可分割性，对所观察事件的偏好条件，取决于反事实的结果还是会引起外调节事件的外部。这一点在文学里有很好的理解。这篇论文认为，作为一种结果也是反事实决策相关的，一种新的如下战略手段用来更新

KEYWORDS: dynamic consistency, resolute choice, updating. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number D81.

Please send editorial communications to:

Peter Wakker CentER, Tilburg University P.O. Box 90153, Tilburg 5000 LE, The Netherlands

* This paper benefitted from discussions with Rakesh Sarin and with participants in a conference on uncertainty in economics, Dept. of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, November 1993, and from discussions with Jean-Yves Jaffray and attendents at a seminar on risk, uncertainty, and decision,

LAFORIA, University of Paris I and VI, France, December 1996.2

关键词:动态一致性、果断抉择,更新。

《经济文献分类号码D81。

请寄给编辑通讯:

彼得 韦克尔

中心、昆士兰大学

邮箱90153号c昆士兰5000,荷兰

本文也从沙林和关于经济学上不确定性的会议上的讨论，经济学部门，美国约翰霍普金斯大学、巴尔的摩,1993年11月,以及和Jaffray Jean-Yves和参加一个关于危险性、不确定性、和决定的研讨会的出席者的讨论。

LAFORIA,大学巴黎Ⅰ和VI,法国,1996.2

1. INTRODUCTION

This paper proposes a new updating method for nonexpected utility, called strategic