Europe's banks; The fear factor;欧洲的银行们;忧虑因素

Europe's banks; The fear factor;欧洲的银行们；忧虑因素；

Preventing a big European bank run;阻止一场欧洲大规模银行挤兑；

In continental capitals and bank boardrooms there is a common fear. It is that the slow jog of deposits leaving banks in Greece and, more recently, Spain, may turn into a full-blown run that quickly spreads from bank to bank, and then from country to country. There have already been some warning signs, such as a sudden acceleration of deposit outflows from Greek banks in May.

在欧洲大陆各国首府和银行的董事会议室里弥漫着一种担忧。 希腊各大银行的存款量正在平缓流失, 新近西班牙各银行也陷入同样境况, 这很有可能会转变成一场全面的银行挤兑风暴, 并迅速在银行乃至国家之间传播。 对此已早有征兆, 五月份希腊各银行的存款外流骤然加速就是例证。

A fierce debate is now taking place as to the best way to avert a run that, if it started, might be difficult to contain and could lead to massive capital flight from the euro zone's peripheral countries, which have 1.8 trillion Euro(2.2 trillion Dollar) in household deposits (see chart). Increasing numbers of people think the answer is greater financial integration. On May 30th the European Commission said there ought to be “full economic and monetary union, including a banking union; integrated financial supervision and a single deposit guarantee scheme”.

目前, 关于如何最为有效地防止一场全面风暴正引起一场激烈争论。 因为挤兑一旦开始蔓延, 可能难以遏制, 而且可能导致欧元区边缘国家出现大量资本流失, 而这些国家家庭存款拥有量达1.8万亿欧元(即2.2万亿美元)。(如图所示)。 越来越多的人认为应该加强欧元区金融一体化。 5月30日, 欧盟委员会指出应建立"全面的经济与货币联盟, 包括银行业的联盟; 以及完整统一的金融监督和单一存款保障计划"。

The first step is to shore up confidence in the region's banks by making sure they have enough capital to withstand a crisis. It is far cheaper to recapitalise banks, after all, than to stand behind all of their deposits. Yet such efforts have been bungled time and again. Europe has twice over the past two years tried to reassure depositors and investors that its banks are sound by subjecting them to “stress tests” that were supposed to mimic an economic downturn. In each case the tests were soon followed by revelations of deep capital holes in some banks (newly nationalised Bankia among them). Since some national regulators have lost the confidence of markets, they are having to bring in outsiders to assess how much capital their banks need.

第一步, 要通过确保区域内各银行有足够的资金能够抵御一次经济危机, 以此增强银行的信心. 毕竟, 调整银行资本结构相比保障各银行的存款量, 所需代价要小的多。 然而这样的努力却一再以失败告终。 在过去两年中, 欧洲曾两次尝试让各银行在一场摹拟的经济危机中接受"压力测试", 证明这些银行都运作良好安全可靠, 试图以此恢复储户和投资者们的信